***Governing Security After War

***ROBUSTNESS CHECKS 
 
 **Model Specification: Logit TSCS
gen peaceyear2 = peaceyear^2 
gen peaceyear3 = peaceyear^3
xtset id year
logit officer_appointment fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   mid democracy coldwar i.region peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3 if peaceyear< 16, cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_1
logit mil_integration fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3  if peaceyear< 16, cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_2
logit civ_control fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3 if peaceyear<16   , cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_3
logit civ_access fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3 if peaceyear<16, cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_4
logit legallimits fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar Americas mideast Asia Africa  peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3 if peaceyear<16    , cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_5
logit discipline fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar Americas mideast Asia Africa peaceyear peaceyear2 peaceyear3 if peaceyear<16    , cluster(id) robust
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using TableR1_logitTSCS.csv,replace se  aic obslast   star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) 

**Model Specification: Varied PostWar Timeframe
**10 years after civil war
  xtset id year
  eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 11, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 11, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<11   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<11, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<11    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<11  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using Table_R2_10year.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**20 years after civil war
  xtset id year
  eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 21, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 21, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<22   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<21, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<21    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<21  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using Table_R2_21year.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**30 years after civil war
  xtset id year
  eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 31, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 31, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<31   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<31, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<31    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<31  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using Table_R2_30year.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**Reversed Causation: Lagged Independent Variables
**2 year lags
xtset id year
eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16  , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<16, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<16   , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline l2.fractionalization l2.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using TableR3_2yrlag_21.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)


*4 year lag
**note timeframe is extended to 20 years to compensate for the reduced sample size.  Since peace spells shorter than 4 years are dropped from this sample, the results of this analysis should be taken with caution. 
xtset id year
eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 21, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 21, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<21   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<21, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<21   , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline l4.fractionalization l4.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<21  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using TableR3_4yrlag_21.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**5 year lags
**note timeframe is extended to 30 years to compensate for the reduced sample size.  Since peace spells shorter than 5 years are dropped from this sample, the results of this analysis should be taken with caution.xtset id year
eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 31, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 31, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<31  , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<31, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<31    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline l5.fractionalization l5.oilexp logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<31  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using TableR3_5yrlag_31yr.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)



**Alternative Variable Specification

**Party Dominance vs. Party Fractionalization
  xtset id year
  eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment dominance oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration dominance oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control dominance oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access dominance oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<16, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits dominance oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un  democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<16    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline dominance oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un   democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using Table_6.2.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)

**UN vs. UN_Long
xtset id year
eststo clear
xtlogit officer_appointment fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long  democracy mid  coldwar i.region if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_1
xtlogit mil_integration fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long  democracy mid  coldwar Europe mideast Asia Africa  if peaceyear< 16, re
estimates store Model_2,  
xtlogit civ_control fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long   democracy mid  coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16   , re
estimates store Model_3
xtlogit civ_access fractionalization oilexp   logpopulation logGDPpercap ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long    democracy mid    coldwar i.region if peaceyear<16, re
estimates store Model_4
xtlogit legallimits fractionalization oilexp    logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long   democracy mid coldwar   if peaceyear<16    , re
estimates store Model_5
xtlogit discipline fractionalization oilexp  logpopulation logGDPpercap  ethfrac peaceagmt victory duration un_long    democracy mid coldwar  i.region if peaceyear<16  , re
estimates store Model_6
esttab      Model_1     Model_2     Model_3    Model_4     Model_5     Model_6   using Table_6.2.csv,replace se  aic obslast scalar(ll)  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01)
